纽约麓山学社6月1日 第19期读书交友会

分享人：陈代卓

分享书目：精准预测: 如何从巨量杂讯中, 看出重要的讯息? The Signal and the Noise — WhySo Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don’t

时间：2014.6.01下午2:00pm至5:00pm

地点：哥伦比亚大学校内具体地址报名后通知。

报名链接：点击最底端左下角“阅读原文”，将跳至活动报名链接

分享者简介：陈代卓 , is a DataScientist at Dstillery Inc, an NYC advertising start up specializing in digitalad targeting and programmatic ad buying. He is also a PhD student at ColumbiaBusiness School. He received his B.S. from Peking University and M.S. from MIT.

主持人个人介绍：心愉，从事电影方面文化传播，学习并践行各种的心灵成长及心理治疗方法。在寻找内心平静与幸福的路上！

分享书目信息

Peoplelove statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signaland the Noise, Nate Silver’s brilliant and elegant tour of the modernscience-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets humannature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, andpolling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks tobiases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows wheresophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignoredto boot). In today’s metrics-saturated world, Silver’s book is a timely andreadable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wieldthem.

作者介绍：

NateSilver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times politicalblog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system forforecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He wasnamed one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He livesin Brooklyn, New York.

高度互动的活动流程：

1）分享人介绍书籍并发表自己的见解（约15分钟）；

2）每位参与者发表自己的感想（约2分钟/人）；

3）所有参与者将分成小组进行交流，并提出一个与主题相关的问题；

4）参与者就提出的问题展开讨论，展思辨之风采。（约2分钟/人）；

5）活动结束后，欢迎意犹未尽的朋友加入聚餐，继续畅谈。

友情提示：

1）不要求参与者提前准备，分享者将提供讨论所需的信息

2）请尽量准时到场，以免错过分享人介绍书目

3）请带好ID

4）如果寻找不到会场，请在活动临时微信群或是Facebook麓山学社Group内发信息，我们将及时回应

活动参与者的一切言论都不代表本学社立场。

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麓山学社是一个民间自发组织的非政府，非宗教，非盈利的公益性组织。组织的宗旨是提升中国人中产阶级和大学生群体的独立思考与判断能力等综合素质。

我们目前在纽约地区每周有两个免费活动：读书交友会（哥伦比亚大学校内）以及无领导小组（NYU校内）。

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